Peering into the CFO's Mind - Part II

On day two of my observation, I got an earlier start to see what CFO rituals occur just after sunrise. I half expected to see Pagan rituals to some God of Forecasting and Cashflow or even more exotic gods of Credit Default Swaps and Sovereign Fund Money Repatriation. I even expected to see some self flagellation for failing to foresee one of the biggest long tail events in a lifetime (CFO code for "low probability, catastrophic event"). I was disappointed that I didn't see any sort of CFO rituals or voodoo. Instead, it was more like watching the ant farm you had as a child - it was the same thing as the day before. There was a lineup at the starbucks coffee stations, some chose the cold white ceramic mugs, others chose the paper disposable cups. When it came to food, they tended to migrate towards the pastries first and just look at the fruit. The way they passed over the fruit, I wondered if CFOs had some ultra olfactory senses warning them that something was wrong with the fruit. I decided to test the fruit myself. I eased over to the table, trying to look inconspicuous and tested the fruit by actually eating it. No psychedelic episode ensued, so I think the fruit was safe and it was simply a cultural fruit phobia issue.

Have you ever attended a casual event and everyone showed up wearing black tie but you? Well dressing down for CFOs seems to mean French cuffs WITHOUT the monogram - or at least switch the diamond cufflinks out for the onyx ones. The dress code is business casual but de rigueur is coat and tie for more than half of the attendees and ties for 90% -- dresses and suits for most of the women. Perhaps CFOs don't own anything that isn't Brooks Brothers, Jos. Bank, or DKNY. That would actually mean they have a better sense of designers than Joe Six Pack and perhaps a better sartorial sense than other professionals.

The first session was the CFO of Bank of America that I hoped was going to impart some wisdom to the crowd. Perhaps he would paint a rosy picture of the banking industry and tell us that credit would be flowing like water through the Trevi fountain in Rome. Instead, he READ a very scripted recap of how we got in this situation. He encouraged companies to take control and not feed the downward spiral (in other words stop laying off people), and he touted the Merrill Lynch deal as adding strength to the bank (even though BofA asked for more money to cover Merrill losses just last week - around $16 billion?). Overall, he lacked any foresight...or perhaps his legal department warned him of prognosticating in public? We don't know, but there was speculation.

I continued throughout the day in my quest to track down targeted attendees, staking out positions where I could get a good vantage point while maintaining some camouflage (sink into the couch in the long hallway, peering around my paper cup of coffee) as to not scare any CFO's away. By now I was getting a handle on their patterns. They were in sessions, then out for coffee, then out on the patio for cell phone reception, then by the bathroom and back into the sessions. They tended not to talk much and didn't look directly at you unless they recognized you already, but most could be approached if you are quick, make direct eye contact, and smile. You might have to run an occasional one down and block their egress, but those were the exceptions.

I forgot to mention that Rafael, one of our VPs, made an outstanding presentation yesterday. CFOs showed up en mass to listen to him pitch "Turning Working Capital into Cash". Note that it had at least one of their hypothetical gods in the title (Cash), so in CFO terms we played on a religious angle to bring them in to "worship". For those non-CFOs, the presentation involved driving out waste and thus costs using continuous improvement techniques. Compared to a number of other presentations that I saw, Rafael's was relevant, direct, and tangible, while some others were either sales pitches or very light on any tangible, actionable content.

Towards the end of the day, the salesman in CFO camouflage from yesterday dragged even more people to the bar. Before drinks started flowing, the group had shared more insight on this economy with each other than any of the sessions. Good story telling really conveys a tremendous amount of information. We talked about businesses that were up (post grad education) businesses that were down (real estate), about conditions in LA, Phoenix, Vegas, Florida, Atlanta, The Carolinas, and Middle New Jersey. We hit upon issues that had not been discussed at the conference including the credit card debt buildup and home equity defaults that have yet to hit (those are likely the next shoes to drop). In Florida, courts are supposedly backed up 15 months on foreclosures and they have implemented a quick trial format. In LA, supposedly only 40% of the foreclosures have reached the market for resale, which means the pricing bottom is still a long way away...and they already have more than a year's inventory in homes for sale.

Back to my targeting. As I am still tied to the construction industry through my interests and our parent company, some of my targets were from the construction industry. I was able to reach three out of five construction industry targets that I had set for myself. Unfortunately a primary one that I simply could not locate was one that I had done strategic planning for in the past.

We closed out the night over dinner with a partner, marketer, and consultant from a Big 5 competitor of ours. We compared notes about the show and people we met along the way, then spent a couple hours just chatting about families, travel, sports,...and of course the elusive CFO.

Tomorrow I still have the morning for observation and perhaps I might find the CFO. I expect the CFO herd will be thinned out tomorrow as they return to their normal environments (the golf links outside) making it easier to single out one or two that actually stay for workshops.